Tuesday, May 15, 2007

In Hindsight will the Draft be Good?

Jeers or cheers for draft picks? Easy in hindsight

Executives need sharp eyes and deaf ears on draft day.

By Ethan J. Skolnick
South Florida Sun-Sentinel
Posted May 15 2007
 
Donnie Walsh saw this as a solo mission.

"Believe me, the scouts weren't willing to go on the stage with me," Walsh said. "Mel Daniels is 6 foot 10 and 260 pounds, and he's hiding in a room underneath the arena."



Daniels and other front-office officials had borne witness to the wrath of Indiana Pacers fans in 1986, when Walsh got booed off the Market Square Arena stage. Walsh's crime? The general manager had chosen Auburn University forward Chuck Person over Michigan State guard Scott Skiles, a more familiar Big Ten player.

Person won Rookie of the Year. Still, that wouldn't soften the fans' stance in 1987. Not when Walsh was passing on Indiana legend Steve Alford to select a skinny shooter from UCLA with the No. 11 pick.

"I ran up on the stage alone, yelled `Reggie Miller' and ran off the stage," Walsh said.

Alford slipped to the second round and played four forgettable NBA seasons. Miller made five All-Star teams and scored 25,279 points. Walsh hasn't found anyone to admit they were in the Market Square crowd of 5,000 doubters.

"You feel like a jerk," Walsh said. "You've just got to walk off and hope the guy's good."

Cam Cameron is hoping the same of Ted Ginn Jr., the Ohio State receiver the Dolphins took at No. 9 in last month's NFL Draft while passing over Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn. Fans at the draft party greeted Cameron with a hostile "Brady" chant. Many remain skeptical and cite the spotty track record of previous Dolphins' decision-makers.

Sports fans hardly boast a pristine track record either ...

You can find exceptions. New York Jets fans did call for Miami defensive tackle Warren Sapp in 1995 rather than Penn State tight end Kyle Brady, a dozen years after their preference for a Pittsburgh quarterback was unwisely ignored.

One Jets fan tried to trust the judgment of taking Ken O'Brien instead of Dan Marino, telling ESPN, "Obviously the Jets know something that the people up here don't."

Or not.

Still, unpopular choices have often outperformed the people's choices. Utah Jazz fans didn't want a little-known Gonzaga guard in 1984. Guy named John Stockton.

Even beleaguered executives can surprise fans with smart decisions. Isiah Thomas made controversial choices in 1995 (taking Damon Stoudamire over Ed O'Bannon for the expansion Toronto Raptors) and 2006 (taking unknown forward Renaldo Balkman for the New York Knicks).

Both panned out.

Walsh was proven right, too. He believed Alford, too small to play off-guard and too slow to man the point, would be a great coach. He was certain Miller would be a great NBA player.

"When you are willing to buck the public wishes that are that dramatic, you have to feel pretty strongly," Walsh said. "You really do believe this guy is so much better and you are going to be right, so you really don't feel it personally."

That requires shutting out noise. Everybody claims to know more than you do, from television experts to bar patrons to local politicians.

Tom Modrak, new to his Philadelphia Eagles job, was responsible for making 1999's No. 2 pick. He avoided sports on radio and television.

"You want to put yourself in a bubble," said Modrak, now in the Buffalo Bills' front office. "But you couldn't avoid it. It was constant, it was tough."

Everybody was talking about Ricky Williams. A reporter told Modrak that Mayor Ed Rendell had warned on WIP Radio of burning down Veterans Stadium if the Eagles passed on the Texas runner.

"You know what the Vet was like," Modrak said. "I said, `Just let me get everybody out of the building and they can go ahead.' It was fine with me."



Modrak nabbed a Syracuse quarterback. No one burned down the stadium, but Eagles officials' eyes burned at the sight of the nasty scene in New York: Eagles fans booing; Donovan McNabb's mother crying.

"This should have been the happiest day of this family's life, and certainly for me, my first draft," Modrak said.

They had sent a limo for McNabb and sneaked him in through the stadium's side entrance. McNabb, while shaken, did not mope. That mature response validated Modrak's character assessment.

Modrak appreciates those who generate interest in the draft, but noted that draftniks, media and fans lack the team's information vault. They don't watch as much tape and they overemphasize "need-filling" in draft grades.

"They will paint a team into a corner," Modrak said.

There wasn't as much predraft buzz in the pre-Internet age, so Jeff Lageman was naive about what awaited him on draft day in 1989. The Virginia defensive end learned quickly.

"It's almost a genetic trait that they have to boo on draft day," said Lageman, now a Jacksonville Jaguars analyst.

Jets fans wanted Oklahoma State receiver Hart Lee Dykes. Draft expert Mel Kiper Jr. fanned the flames, saying on ESPN that the Lageman pick proved the Jets didn't know anything about the draft.

"It gave me a little more motivation," said Lageman, who saw the reaction on TV. "When you're 21 years old, and absolutely scared of nothing, bulletproof, at that age I didn't even care."

That is the attitude Lageman recommends to Ginn: "Be young and fearless. If it consumes you, then it will affect you."

Lageman felt Jets fans warming to him by the third season of a solid career.

Walsh said Pacers fans judged Miller harshly at first, characterizing him as a Los Angeles "hot dog." Still, Walsh encouraged Miller to stay confident, even cocky.

"His third year, he averaged 25, and that got rid of the hot dog label really quick," Walsh said. "He became beloved."

Can Ginn become beloved?

Sure, Modrak said:

"If Ginn catches a few deep balls, especially against Buffalo, they'll be all right."

Ethan J. Skolnick can be reached at eskolnick@sun-sentinel.com.





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